William Knoke's

Futures Wheel Exercise

A Futures Wheel is a visual tool used to help think about the consequences or implications of a particular trend or change.  Mr. Knoke tailors the Futures Wheel Exercise to the needs of the conference.  Following Mr. Knoke's lecture, participants break into groups of six to eight to follow a methodology that Mr. Knoke has prepared.  The exercise takes 45 to 90 minutes based on the needs of the conference.

Below is illustrated the evolution of a Futures Wheel at one of the tables at one of Mr. Knoke's conferences.  In this case, the purpose was to explore the trend of increased population aging on the ADR (alternate dispute resolution) industry (which includes arbitration and mediation).  The Futures Wheel Exercise forces participants to think, and promotes group interaction.

STEP 1:  The central trend is determined by Mr. Knoke based on the focus of the conference.

STEP 2:  Participants come up with the "primary" effects stemming from the central trend.

STEP 3:  Each primary effect has "secondary" effects.

STEP 4:  Finally, participants explore the effects of the primary and secondary effects on their industry.  Sometimes interesting conclusions result.  Here, the green dots represent just some of the effects of an aging population (central trend) on the ADR (alternate dispute resolution) industry.  Each table will come up with different conclusions, thus creating fertile ground for the rest of the conference.